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By Thalif Deen UNITED NATIONS, Dec 9 (IPS) - The United Nations believes that Afghan farmers could find a credible, and profitable, alternative to their present crop of opium poppies by growing onions.
''The cultivation of onions could be a substitute for poppies,'' says Alfredo Witschi-Cestari, Resident Representative for U.N. Development Programme (UNDP) in Afghanistan. ''There is a wonderful market for onions in neighbouring Pakistan.''
The U.N. International Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) already has embarked on a project to convince farmers, warlords and drug traffickers of the highly lucrative market for onions that could be theirs. The UNDP and the UNDCP are embarking on a joint programme - spread over the next five to 10 years - to replace the vast poppy farms in Afghanistan with massive onion fields.
Asked whether it wouldn't be a risk to focus on just a single alternative crop, Witschi-Cestari told IPS ''for the time being it is going to be onions.'' ''We have to see the capacity of the market for alternate crops,'' he added.
Besides the widespread cultivation of onions, the U.N.'s drug control strategy also includes close monitoring of the drug trade, law enforcement and incentives for poppy crop reduction.
The U.N. Industrial Development Organisaton (UNIDO), meanwhile, has identified competitive opportunities for the development of agro-based industries to enhance employment and income-generation in rural areas in lieu of opium cultivation.
According to the United Nations, Afghanistan is one of the world's largest producers of illicit opium. Currently, there are more than 57,000 hectares under poppy cultivation generating about 60 million dollars in annual incomes for approximately 200,000 Afghan farmers. A U.N. survey released in September said that opium poppy production in Afghanistan rose to 2,800 tons in 1997, an estimated 25 percent increase over 1996. The increase was likely due to favourable weather conditions and improved methods of cultivation.
At present, about 96.4 percent of Afghanistan's total opium production originates in provinces under the control of the Taliban, the rigidly Islamic fundamentalist group ruling most of the country.
''Afghans no longer want to depend on poppy cultivation. They are ready to change,'' Witschi-Cestari said. He pointed out that one of the key economic elements driving the current civil war in Afghanistan is drugs. ''The money gets into the pipeline,'' he said.
But the U.N. official said he was very pessimisstic about peace in Afghanistan in the near future. ''It is a very frustrating exercise,'' he said of U.N. efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement. The warring parties, he said, were not willing to come to the negotiating table.
In a report released last month, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said that much to his regret, ''the Afghan factions have so far failed to prove that they are willing to lay down their arms and cooperate with the United Nations for peace.''
''At the same time, there always exist spoilers inside and outside the country who are much better off with the continuation of the problem than they would be with the solution,'' he said.
Annan describes the political situation in Afghanistan as ''a classic situation in failed states where warlords, smugglers, terrorists, drug dealers and others thrive amid the conflict, and would only lose out with the return of peace, law and order.''
Afghanistan's drug trade is also funding the movement of arms into the various factions. Annan wants to plug this loophole by imposing an effective arms embargo. ''Although such an embargo should not become an end in itself, it is necessary for the United Nations and member states to undertake preliminary studies on how a mandatory arms embargo could be implemented in a fair and verifiable manner,'' Annan said his report.
If the cost estimates for such an embargo proves to be too high, he said, other ways need to be found to end, or at least significantly reduce, the supply of arms to the warring factions. Annan also said that ''it has become increasingly difficult to justify the continuation of U.N. peace efforts and the attendant costs in the absence of any positive signs''of a peaceful solution to the conflict raging since the early 1990s.
A peaceful settlement in Afghanistan ''remains elusive'' notwithstanding the ''untiring efforts'' of the United Nations to broker peace among the country's warring factions, he added.
The Afghan civil war is between the Taliban and the five-party Northern Alliance, formally known as the Islamic and National Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan. The Taliban continues to control most provinces in the south, south-west and south-east, including the capital Kabul, and the cities of Kandahar, Herat and Jalalabad. The Northern Alliance, which operates from the provincial capitals of Mazar-i-Sharif, Bamyan, Talogan and Maimana, is in control of the provinces in northern and central Afghanistan. (END/IPS/td/mk/97)